By John Aguilar, March 17, 2008
With the courting of delegates having come to an end in the 2nd Congressional District, it's time for the candidates to go after the real voters.
Two top Democratic contenders in the race -- Joan Fitz-Gerald and Jared Polis -- appear to have amassed the 262 delegates necessary to make it onto the Aug. 12 primary ballot.
Over the course of 10 county assemblies held in the past few weeks, Fitz-Gerald was the clear favorite among party insiders.
According to preliminary results, she won about 55 percent of the delegates to Polis' 33 percent, giving her first listing on the primary ballot.
Slightly more than 100 delegates, or about 12 percent, remain uncommitted.
The 2nd Congressional District delegates will meet at the district assembly in Adams County on May 10 to officially cast their votes.Democrat Will Shafroth, who eschewed the caucus process, will begin petitioning his way onto the ballot starting March 31. He is required to collect 1,000 valid signatures from Democratic voters in the district by May 22.
If Shafroth is successful, it will be a three-way race for the seat now held by U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, D-Eldorado Springs.
No Republicans are running.
Fitz-Gerald won 230 delegates to Polis' 146 at Saturday's assembly in Boulder County. Preliminary figures out of the Jefferson County assembly, also held Saturday, indicate that she took that contest by a 47-16 margin there.
In total, Fitz-Gerald won nine of 10 counties, only losing to Polis in Broomfield.
Mary Alice Mandarich, spokeswoman for Fitz-Gerald's campaign, said her candidate's dominance at the assemblies proves the depth of support voters in the district have for the former state Senate president.
"The conventional wisdom was that Jared would have won in Boulder County because he's done so much there and lives there," she said Monday. "Joan has deep support in places that people might not have thought she had."
Polis spokeswoman Dayna Hanson downplayed the results from the delegate race, saying they mostly represent the will of the party elite and not the wider electorate who will vote in August.
"Joan is the insider -- the establishment candidate -- so naturally she was going to do better overall," she said. "Jared is a totally different generation than Joan, and he represents the new generation of leadership."
Kenneth Bickers, chairman of the political science department at the University of Colorado, said the results from the county assemblies don't necessarily translate to how things will turn out during the primary election.
Especially when Polis, a wealthy Internet entrepreneur, has an almost limitless source of money at his disposal.
"He's the one with the advertising budget, and that helps a candidate define himself and define his opponent," Bickers said Monday.
John Straayer, a political science professor at Colorado State University, said he still puts his money on Fitz-Gerald as the "odds-on favorite" in the race.
Lynea Hansen, Shafroth's spokeswoman, said her candidate will be building support while going door-to-door collecting signatures throughout the district.
"Voters have turned out in record numbers (this year) because of their dissatisfaction with the current administration, and Will represents the change they are seeking," she said.